Showing posts with label currency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label currency. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 07, 2023

It's Febuhari hahahaha #notreally

















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Sunday, February 21, 2016

Clarity of thinking, by Nigeria's Sanusi

1. Exchange-rate talk has moved from the province of traders and bankers to...well, everybody: hairdressers, taxi-drivers, and the denizens of Naija-Twitter.  This is how somebody put it:


Charts: "Official exchange rate" and "exchange rate", click for sources: XE.com , MarkEssien.com
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=NGN&view=5Y
USD/NGN Fixed at ~198 since Q1 2015

but doesn't stop the real rate from marching along.  Will arbitrage happen?  Oh Yes.

2. Meanwhile, respected former head of Nigeria's Central Bank Lamido Sanusi has said [to the BBC that] the government should end its policy of trying to maintain the value of the currency, the Naira...the drawbacks of the policy far outweigh its dubious benefits.
How so? (Source)
https://www.google.com/search?q=confused+mathematics&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj70u-RxojLAhUBbRQKHZbmCIkQsAQIJQ&biw=1366&bih=667
  • “This argument (on devaluation) I think has first of all been framed wrong, it’s not an argument about do we devalue or do we not devalue. The Naira has already been devalued,” he said.
  • “What is the value of the Naira? It’s what you can get for it, what you can get for the dollar in a free market between a willing buyer and a willing seller – and it is not 197.
  • “All that is happening is that the government has chosen to sell its own dollars at a subsidised rate to the private sector. That’s what is happening. So, if you’re lucky, you’d get something worth N300 for N200 and you save N100,” Sanusi added.
  • He explained that, “for every $1 billion that the Central Bank sells, it has transloaded N100 billion to the private sector – that’s what is happening.
  • “So you got a huge arbitrage opportunity, which either way undermines the government’s anti-corruption stance.
  • “You also take so much money away from states and local governments, because this is money that from oil proceeds, from PPT, royalties, that should go to education and healthcare for the poor.
  • “While the president is looking at the pain inflicted on the poor, by high prices of import, he also needs to look at the pain inflicted on them by taking away revenue that could go into education and healthcare.”
( Hey, I'm no former Central Bank Governor, but #IStandWithLogic  )
I'd listen to Grisha (Perelman) if I were you

While commending the President for transparency, removal of subsidy and other structural reforms, Sanusi said the Federal Government needs clarity of thinking in the handling of the foreign exchange policy.

“There has to be clarity of thinking. The government on the one hand says it wants to encourage domestic production, the Governor of the Central Bank says he wants to reduce import dependence, but one would think that the way to reduce import dependence is not to make imports cheaper.
http://addison6thgrade.blogspot.com.ng/2015_03_01_archive.html
“You subsidize exchange rate – you’re making imports cheap. So you’re actually pursuing a monetary policy that undermines structural objectives,” he said.

Also commending the Goodluck Jonathan administration, [Sanusi] said that the huge corruption that trailed that government was unprecedented, noting that systems have to be put in place to make it difficult for future leaders to steal:

“The thinking that has to be done is beyond looking for these people, beyond recovering the money, beyond prosecuting them. “What kind of institutional changes do we need to have in processes, in systems, that would make it impossible for the next president to do the kinds of things done in the past”, he said.

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Sunday, October 16, 2011

Money News that is just a bit new: YouWIN, the misunderstood subsidy, Naira to strengthen, and the World bank cares.

YouWIN
At least the administration is listening. There is a government plan to tackle unemployment through entrepreneurial development. It has a name: YouWIN - Youth Enterprise With Innovation In Nigeria.
Will it have teeth? I need money now, actually like 6 months ago for my "business" - my new book. How can I WIN?
I've witnessed a business plan program similar to the one proposed by YouWIN - it featured a week of all-day classes at a Lagos Business School affiliate, then a business plan competition. It was tastefully sponsored by people of NLI. They kept it simple, and awarded capital - yeah baby - to three top business plans. (all about the NLI Business Plan Competition here)

Since the best academic writers don't always have the most business sense, a program like YouWIN may not reliably create strong businesses directly from the winning business plans.
However, it will indirectly create a culture of enterprise: as ideas meet, good people partner, add focused training, serve seed money to help people TRY.  Yes, they will likely, and crucially, fail. But it is still very good to spend money in this way - people will start devoting their time and energy to good business, and this builds their business/entrepreneurship muscles.
The secret of Stanford (a university and frequent high-tech incubator) is not more than that. 

My advice on YouWIN: Keep it simple.  Use good people (like me; pay me so I can make small money to produce my new book) not people who will mess up the whole thing by being backward and greedy.  Also keep this as the big book version but let us create the "illiterate" version that can reach more people. Oya, let me go and apply.

The Petroleum Subsidy Brouhaha
The reason to remove the subsidy is to remove the perverse incentive to import and deal in oil; and hopefully to create incentives to produce and trade in better things.
The subsidy will be removed if we must move forward.  This is not to trivialize what a political minefield it is to suddenly raise living costs on the majority of people.  Such would be bad for society and the economy as well.  What is the plan to
1. cushion any shocks and unintended consequences e.g. high food, fuel, and transport prices
2. communicate love and care to the masses who will feel cheated and abandoned?

Clearly, the idea of shaping the incentive function (I'm an engineer/math person) is not one that the masses would easily wrap their minds around.  Nduka Obiagbena and Wale Tinubu, among the business leaders supporting the removal of the subsidy, support it for the wrong reason because they are not very analytical.   Aliko Dangote, who also supports removing the subsidy, shows why he is more intelligent than many business leaders in Nigeria.  He understands that it is not the spending on subsidy that is the problem, but the system this creates.

In the grand scheme of things, the amount spent on the subsidy is paltry.  James Ibori alone could pay it for a few years from his loot, not voluntarily of course.  The subsidy should go, but not because of the money spent on it, not even because of the alternative uses that money could be spent on, but because it entrenches a system of importing oil products.  When you subsidize something, it means you are trying to make more of it.  When you subsidize oil imports, it means you are assisting the business of oil importers to make it stronger.  This is why we can not have electricity (we need generators to continue to consume the diesel) and why we can not have trains (we need more cars to continue to burn petrol.)  

My advice on petroleum subsidy: Understand if/why the subsidy must be removed.  Explain this to people.  Devote ten times more money to another new people-oriented program and communicate what the disappeared subsidy money was spent on.  Proceed with caution, even if you think you are right. 

Sanusi believes the Naira will strengthen
In other news, the Naira still manages to weaken against the US dollar.  How is it possible that even with the US in recession and crisis, their currency is still beating ours up?

Money for Power
The World Bank and the International Finance Corporation are to organize an Alternative Energy Expo to find a way forward for energy/electricity in Nigeria. This is new. I'd never heard of our electricity being "their" problem before.
What this forum - Lighting Africa - is doing is to try and make the latest lighting technology accessible to the hundreds of millions in Africa's un-electrified rural communities and replace kerosene as a lighting source by solar and other clean sources."
Abeg, come and invest.

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Monday, July 25, 2011

How can I get my dollars direct?

I noticed that there is a gap of over 10% between the official exchange rate and current black-market rate. While the official rate crashed around July 1st to 150naira per US Dollar, your mallam will sell to you not at 153 (for a typical 2% spread) but around 166 (a very atypical 11% difference).
It makes sense that the official rate is low; the dollar is so poorly that no currency has a right to do worse, but how do you explain the high dollar price on the streets? The newspaper (ThisDay) is reporting that this is due to a shortage of dollars created by a Central Bank policy pegging dollar supply to Bureaus Des Change.


If only we could automatically change currency at the points of use, like I used to do with my U.S. Visa debit card. It basically got you any currency - even Naira, at local ATMs - at the best possible exchange rate. But now I have a Nigerian visa card that accomplishes much less. The bank offers a "dual-currency" debit card as well, but the processing time for that application is about four months. They assured me they were not kidding about the length of time, no, it's not a joke. Four month wait for two currencies. Four week wait for 100 currencies --> Let's just say America has a more developed financial services sector than Nigeria.
Meanwhile, with the same currency selling for 150 one way and 166 another way, there is arbitrage, or what my brotha Mr. Bismarck-Rewane termed "a round-tripping paradise."

Previously on UpNaira

 

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