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I accidentally discovered a snapshot that captures the topsy-turvy state of things in the Nigerian economy. Now let me tell you a story.

Bad news in Nigeria currency, prices, and fuel.   Image seen today at the bottom of the homepage on PremiumTimes.

Time for a story:
February 2014, CBN Governor Sanusi was sacked by then-President Goodluck Jonathan.
Four months later, incoming CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele delivered an inspiring address about the things the Central Bank would focus on.   

By June 2015, Muhammadu Buhari was the new president of Nigeria and gossip had it that his body language (as a no-nonsense anti-corruption crusader) was already dissipating Nigeria's crooked thieves. 
Most people may have forgotten, but during the campaign Buhari pledged to do great things within the first 100 days - these were real promises, each section beginning with "I pledge to."  
Reality gave Nigerians a sound knock on the head! 
It was not until near year-end that this new President appointed Ministers, including himself as Minister of Petroleum, and only a few of the new ministers bothered to quickly communicate concrete plans and accomplishments. 

Here are some observed results: 
The naira in meltdown mode already by February 2016. 
Here on UpNaira, I attempted to explain Buharinomics as the work of a confused muslim. 
Confused Central Bank leadership especially if you revisit the objectives the same Emefiele laid out on assumption of office. 
Confusion in managing importation of fuel and prices despite (or because of?) the great attention given to that sector where the country's president and commander-in-chief was also the minister.   

In May 2016 when President Buhari clocked one year in Office, the Nigerian press took the initiative to review his performance and  generally he received a D for disappointment and an F on the economy.  The people on the street really complained - Nigerians are so funny - because prices have been going up like mad. 

I know you are sad and possibly hungry/tired, but don't be. 
There is hope,
as the United Nations' MDGs give way to SDGs with globally-agreed metrics and monitoring towards sustainable economic growth; 
and as the AfDB strives to develop Africa with a focus on feeding, powering with electricity, investing in industrialization and transnational infrastructure, and of course in the people and their capabilities; 
and with the possibilities that forever UpNaira $weet '16 individuals like you embody,
we shall overcome. 

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Inflation rate in Nigeria

...averaged 12.15 percent from 1996 until 2016
Here is a more detailed story from the last five years:

and over a longer range:

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Public sentiment is more negative than the 20-year chart might suggest.  Tired of high prices, the tumbling exchange rate, unpaid salaries, and layoffs, the people are repenting from their fervent support of the 'change' candidate. #BuhaRegret

That said, considering the 5-year chart, one might say that the people have grown accustomed to single-digit inflation and have a right to expect a smoother ride than this, financially/economically.  Why can't we build on our success? 

Comments?

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Hard truths as prices continue to soar in Nigeria

This is inflation, as dramatized by Nigerian people, mostly traders.  We would do well to take human feedback into account in designing our government. 

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Clarity of thinking, by Nigeria's Sanusi

1. Exchange-rate talk has moved from the province of traders and bankers to...well, everybody: hairdressers, taxi-drivers, and the denizens of Naija-Twitter.  This is how somebody put it:

With Corruption Naira was 202 = 1 Dollar
Without Corruption Naira 405 = 1 Dollar#IStandWithCorruption

— Papi (@itspapibaby) February 20, 2016

With corruption a bag of pure water=80naira
Without corruption=150naira#IStandWithCorruption

— Papi (@itspapibaby) February 20, 2016

Charts: "Official exchange rate" and "exchange rate", click for sources: XE.com , MarkEssien.com

USD/NGN Fixed at ~198 since Q1 2015

but doesn't stop the real rate from marching along.  Will arbitrage happen?  Oh Yes.

2. Meanwhile, respected former head of Nigeria's Central Bank Lamido Sanusi has said [to the BBC that] the government should end its policy of trying to maintain the value of the currency, the Naira...the drawbacks of the policy far outweigh its dubious benefits.
How so? (Source)

• “This argument (on devaluation) I think has first of all been framed wrong, it’s not an argument about do we devalue or do we not devalue. The Naira has already been devalued,” he said.
• “What is the value of the Naira? It’s what you can get for it, what you can get for the dollar in a free market between a willing buyer and a willing seller – and it is not 197.
• “All that is happening is that the government has chosen to sell its own dollars at a subsidised rate to the private sector. That’s what is happening. So, if you’re lucky, you’d get something worth N300 for N200 and you save N100,” Sanusi added.
• He explained that, “for every $1 billion that the Central Bank sells, it has transloaded N100 billion to the private sector – that’s what is happening.
• “So you got a huge arbitrage opportunity, which either way undermines the government’s anti-corruption stance.
• “You also take so much money away from states and local governments, because this is money that from oil proceeds, from PPT, royalties, that should go to education and healthcare for the poor.
• “While the president is looking at the pain inflicted on the poor, by high prices of import, he also needs to look at the pain inflicted on them by taking away revenue that could go into education and healthcare.”

( Hey, I'm no former Central Bank Governor, but #IStandWithLogic  )

I'd listen to Grisha (Perelman) if I were you

While commending the President for transparency, removal of subsidy and other structural reforms, Sanusi said the Federal Government needs clarity of thinking in the handling of the foreign exchange policy.

“There has to be clarity of thinking. The government on the one hand says it wants to encourage domestic production, the Governor of the Central Bank says he wants to reduce import dependence, but one would think that the way to reduce import dependence is not to make imports cheaper.

“You subsidize exchange rate – you’re making imports cheap. So you’re actually pursuing a monetary policy that undermines structural objectives,” he said.

Also commending the Goodluck Jonathan administration, [Sanusi] said that the huge corruption that trailed that government was unprecedented, noting that systems have to be put in place to make it difficult for future leaders to steal:

“The thinking that has to be done is beyond looking for these people, beyond recovering the money, beyond prosecuting them. “What kind of institutional changes do we need to have in processes, in systems, that would make it impossible for the next president to do the kinds of things done in the past”, he said.

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