Wednesday, May 29, 2013

The Nigeria Premium on electric power generation cost

Worldwide, and for at least thirty years, the installation* cost of large-scale power plants has remained steady** at about $1 billion per 1,000 MW. 
Interestingly, in Nigeria, when projects or projections are announced, they drift far from this estimate, and I wonder why. 
An electric power system
* I mean the cost of building the plant, given in dollars per GW.  Different from the cost of running/operating the plant, which is given per MWh.  
**I'll try and find a reference.  I originally deduced the $1 billion / gigawatt estimate from a ?2009 Nigerian government planning document that showed a graph of of capacity vs. cost for dozens of large (roughly 0.1-10GW) power projects in various countries over the decades, and it struck me how power provision is a commodity, a thing that could be accomplished with cash and without any high-tech competence whatsoever. It also showed clearly that there is a stable price for this commodity.    
Aside, this is beautiful - all the large power plants in the world in one map: 


1 comment:

t said...

Here is data that appears to contradict what I've estimated above, then you remember that it's a marketing document by a company that wants to install your power plant, and every effort has been made to keep the quoted cost on the high side, I would imagine.

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