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   What happened to Nigeria's Vision 2020 plans, designed with much effort and ceremony around 2009 and mostly forgotten now, 10 years later?   
Any regrets, lessons, ... any hope?   

click for more data 

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Technology Today

Ubiquitous, mobile supercomputing  . Artificially-intelligent robots  . Self-driving cars  . Neuro-technological brain enhancements  . Genetic editing  .  .  . 21st-century stuff . . .

in the light of which the constant drama of Nigerian (African?) society, the stuff of our daily news for instance, must appear supremely daft and irrelevant.  Yaba would save us, but that dream too may be dying. 

If you have a ray of hope to share, put it in the comments.

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We are h-a-p-p-y . p-e-o-p-l-e .

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The Economist recommends a nice, long, rest for the man.  

Utopia for Realists

 (ideas changing work, pay, borders to increase happiness) 

and how we can get there
  by Rutger Bregman
 
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Story, Story

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Order Lovebirds now, to get it before Valentine's Day.

And now, for the story: The Goldman Sachs Effect, an American tale.   Enjoy. 

I accidentally discovered a snapshot that captures the topsy-turvy state of things in the Nigerian economy. Now let me tell you a story.

Bad news in Nigeria currency, prices, and fuel.   Image seen today at the bottom of the homepage on PremiumTimes.

Time for a story:
February 2014, CBN Governor Sanusi was sacked by then-President Goodluck Jonathan.
Four months later, incoming CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele delivered an inspiring address about the things the Central Bank would focus on.   

By June 2015, Muhammadu Buhari was the new president of Nigeria and gossip had it that his body language (as a no-nonsense anti-corruption crusader) was already dissipating Nigeria's crooked thieves. 
Most people may have forgotten, but during the campaign Buhari pledged to do great things within the first 100 days - these were real promises, each section beginning with "I pledge to."  
Reality gave Nigerians a sound knock on the head! 
It was not until near year-end that this new President appointed Ministers, including himself as Minister of Petroleum, and only a few of the new ministers bothered to quickly communicate concrete plans and accomplishments. 

Here are some observed results: 
The naira in meltdown mode already by February 2016. 
Here on UpNaira, I attempted to explain Buharinomics as the work of a confused muslim. 
Confused Central Bank leadership especially if you revisit the objectives the same Emefiele laid out on assumption of office. 
Confusion in managing importation of fuel and prices despite (or because of?) the great attention given to that sector where the country's president and commander-in-chief was also the minister.   

In May 2016 when President Buhari clocked one year in Office, the Nigerian press took the initiative to review his performance and  generally he received a D for disappointment and an F on the economy.  The people on the street really complained - Nigerians are so funny - because prices have been going up like mad. 

I know you are sad and possibly hungry/tired, but don't be. 
There is hope,
as the United Nations' MDGs give way to SDGs with globally-agreed metrics and monitoring towards sustainable economic growth; 
and as the AfDB strives to develop Africa with a focus on feeding, powering with electricity, investing in industrialization and transnational infrastructure, and of course in the people and their capabilities; 
and with the possibilities that forever UpNaira $weet '16 individuals like you embody,
we shall overcome. 

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A good thing happened

The federal government announced an end to the fuel subsidies, and thus changed the official price of petrol price from N86.50 to N145 (maximum?) per litre.  Some, NOT all, people are happy with this price increase.
We may face strikes in the coming week in protest of the new price regime.
But considering that for months Nigerian consumers have been paying more than N150/liter in painful conditions for the same, we might as well call the price what it is and hope for progress.

How badly are we doing at the pump?
The price of crude oil crashed - worldwide - in 2014, leading to lower pump prices in Kenya, cheap gasoline in the USA, - both countries now have about 30% lower petrol prices than in late 2014 as logic may predict, ... but in Nigeria, we see the opposite effect: prices have gone up 50% ...

2011 - 2016 price charts for crude oil - oil-price.net

On the other hand, Saudi raised its super-low pump price about 50% too, and we Nigerians don't pay more for fuel than the typical (non-oil-rich) country.   

Criticism of the latest petrol (PMS) subsidy-removal policy -
1. Inflation and hardship, but we've seen the worst of those anyway
2. Low local refining capacity means we still import fuel with basically the little money we've got from exporting crude oil and will remain poor unless we change things.
On the other hand, some would argue that
3. We should have done this a long time ago. 

The federal government should now end the currency subsidy.  The dollar is priced at about 350 Naira, even if the official rate remains under N200. 

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Corruption corrupts, and absolute corruption ... ?

(Source)
Corruption is universal, and Nigeria is a country universally acclaimed for corruption. In spite of all the rules and laws prohibiting corrupt practices, [corruption] continues to thrive under weak legal, political and administrative institutions; thereby exerting its penetrating influence on ordinary Nigerians who are trapped in a moral maze as they attempt to conduct their businesses. These Nigerians live their lives with all honesty and integrity, but are too often compelled to conform or be crushed.

Lara Popoola, Nigerian lawyer

In light of the deteriorating state of common affairs, it is only appropriate that I should note the deep chasm of distrust and rising cynicism of many Nigerians, about the credibility of the President’s recent anti-corruption battle against some senior government officials and their associates accused of misappropriating public funds. A corruption battle which has been highly speculative and seriously debilitated, by a legal justice system that is lethargic, fundamentally flawed and unfit for purpose.

While I strongly affirm the absolute necessity to prosecute and penalise these “giants” of corruption, I am also mindful of the fact that the government is just one of two hands that claps to the beat of corruption. Hence, we must also address the contribution and mindset of individuals to the existence of corruption in Nigeria, if we are going to wage a successful war against it. The customary condemnation of government and public officials for corruption often authorises many Nigerians to assume the position of spectators and commentators, thereby mitigating their individual participation. They remain oblivious of the fact that corruption does not discriminate.

 Rather, it acquaints itself with people of all social pedigrees, ages, tribes, gender and political parties. It has no regard for level of education or even religious affiliations; for we know many have audaciously testified about the supposed ‘blessings’ of their ill-gotten gains. It is no wonder, that as Nigeria continues to pay its legislators high salaries and stupendous allowances while majority of the population lives in abject poverty and darkness. There is an increased pressure on people to become wealthy in order to alleviate their poverty.

Consequently, the courage to adhere to high standards of propriety erodes away and morality declines as individuals ask “why should I be the sole custodian of honesty and integrity?” After all, an employee who is not earning a living wage and is owed accrued salaries, without the assurance that he will have a job tomorrow, might choose to supplement his income with bribes and other corrupt means.

It is worth noting, that it is not just the man who receives the bribe that is corrupt, but also the man who offers it. Corruptive norms are so widespread, it is sometimes inconceivable for many to comprehend how employing families and friends of the boss rather than the best candidates for jobs perpetuates corruption. Or “rubbing hands” with custom officials to allow the importation and exportation of banned items; or parents using unorthodox means to ensure the admission of their children to higher institutions; or assuming it is acceptable to be dishonest in business dealings just because “that is how it is done here”.

It is because of this prevailing warped mentality, that individuals must not undermine their susceptibility to corruption, for at various stages of life, one might be compelled to confess “I was corrupt”, “I am corrupt” or “I will be corrupt”. This is simply because corruption corrupts.

It is relentless and progressive in its efforts. There was once a time when corruption and development co-existed on a tolerable scale, and Nigeria was able to reap immediate benefits from its natural resources. Unfortunately, this is no longer the case. The adverse impact of corruption on public and private life is obvious and the country is confronted with a vicious cycle of lower investment and growth, higher poverty and inequality, greater fiscal imbalance, and weaker delivery of basic public services. How else does one rationalise the 5^th largest provider of crude oil in the world experiencing chronic fuel shortages?

In echo of the President, to conclude that if Nigeria does not kill corruption, corruption will kill Nigeria, is as certain as the theorems of Pythagoras. It will continue to claim thousands of lives on poorly constructed roads, many more will lose their lives in hospitals because of inadequate healthcare facilities. The dreams of many young people will die because money meant for better educational system has been diverted into private pockets and many senior citizens will continue to suffer as they struggle to receive their pensions. Finally, hope will perish when poverty gains a stronghold and misery is intensified.

This is not an attempt to indict every Nigerian of corruption – that would be an unwarranted blanket criminalisation. Rather, my aim is to intrude the thoughts of individuals who unconsciously or through blissful ignorance live their lives without considering their responsibility for corruption and its powerful influence on their day to day living, with the hope to reform our approach to citizenship by asking “how corrupt am I?” and then proceed to actively challenge questionable norms that are detrimental to our development as a nation.

The writer of the above piece, Lara Popoola, is a Contracts Negotiator with a degree in Law and Masters in Financial Regulations and Compliance. She enjoys reading and keeping up to date with political and social issues in Nigeria.

Source:  Question For Every Nigerian… “How Corrupt Am I?”, published April 2016 on Bellanaija.com . As is often true of blog articles, the comments / reactions are varied and very interesting, for instance:

• This is thought provoking Lara crofty.
  However, Our institutions and its machinery has been rigged to encourage furtherance of corrupt practices in the country. For example, I have being a victim of incomplete car registration. All the papers are well documented, but were not fully updated into their system (as i later found out). Hence on a particular instance, i was forced to part with N20,000.00 or loose my car to a set of Custom officer whose jurisdiction, or office is not known.
  In such a case, if you stick to the law, honesty and due process, the unmarked car(without engraving of any kind) would have been stolen by the self-same people expected to protect it. or what do you reckon?

• This was well written – in a very lawyer-ly way. I think when we want to ask this question, we need to break it down as much as possible...For many of us, paying N1000 to jump fuel queues is being smart, not bribery or corruption.
  Getting your family member that job that (s)he isn’t qualified for is reducing unemployment, not nepotism or corruption.
  Looking the other way while your line manager keeps N30 million out of a pool of N60 million meant as bonus for the entire team is doing “oga things” and God will take us there someday, not corruption or malpractice.
  The LAMATA bus guys who overload buses and collect cash instead of selling you tickets is him “eating where he works” not corruption.
  Senators asking you why should they take Coaster buses in lieu of going to the same place in a convoy of 20 cars is met with “God will help us” instead of the due outrage.
  Housing “Agents” and court and registry officials collecting money they cannot issue receipts for is not seen as corruption.
  How much did you pay for your drivers’ license? I bet not the normal price.
  Is purchase of black market petrol legal?
  How much did you pay for your passport?
  How much did you pay for your PHCN meter?   All this is to say….everything is warped. Institutions and even the simplest processes are so tainted by corruption, and nothing is done by the rule book anymore. Is it possible to go back to when things were as they should be? Or should we work towards creating a new normal?

Meanwhile, Nigerians are not happy about David Cameron's recent "fantastically corrupt" comment.  Maybe we can change things?  


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What Africa needs now: Transnational infrastructure, Transparency in systems, Using and developing all her people, ...

Akinwumi Adesina is running for President of AfDB. He was a Most-Valuable Player on the Nigerian Federal Cabinet, so I say yes, hope he gets the job. 

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Speech by Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, Nigerian Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development and candidate for President of the African Development Bank 

Delivered at the Business Council for Africa’s Annual Debate

21 April 2015

Source

Africa is experiencing a never-before-seen economic and political transformation. Five of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies are located here. It has rightfully created tremendous excitement not only within our borders, but around the world.

 While there are many reasons to celebrate the improved economic performance, daunting challenges remain and troubling trends have emerged.

We are facing widening economic and social inequalities that have resulted from non-inclusive growth. Africa’s poverty rates are still the highest in the world. Despite gains that have been made, the reality is that 44% of Africans still live on less than $1.25 per day.

These are struggles I know. I grew up in poverty, the son of a farmer who worked for less than 10 cents per day. I was one of the lucky few to attain education and opportunity. I don’t want my story to be the exception, I want the cycle of poverty to be broken across Africa. Our economic success needs to be shared – with prosperity for all – creating a more equal, stable, and peaceful continent. Nothing is more important than putting an end to poverty.

We are also facing rapid urbanization that will determine the resilience of the growth process.

We have exceedingly high levels of unemployment – which leads to social, political, and economic fragility.

Fragility is on the rise. 53% of Africa’s nations are fragile states. Fragility, joblessness, and economic and political exclusion breed terrorism. We need to tackle the fundamentals of fragility.

We are on the receiving end of climate change. Although Africa has done little to contribute to the damage, we are suffering heavily from the effects of it. We are paying a disproportionate price for climate change.

While we should celebrate our achievements, we also need to recognize that these key challenges must be tackled head-on by the African Development Bank. We need to renew our commitment to addressing these together – with both regional and non-regional members. As we do so, the Bank will grow into its role as the premier finance institution on the continent.

That is why I am running for president of the African Development Bank.

To make progress, the next President must not only understand the merits of a policy or strategy, but how to translate it into action on the ground. This is something I have done over the course of my career.

I’ve implemented innovative finance schemes in several African countries – from Uganda to Tanzania, Kenya to Mozambique, Ghana to Nigeria. I’ve helped to leverage over $4 billion from commercial banks to finance agricultural SMEs. And I launched an electronic wallet program which helped to end corruption in the fertilizer sector in Nigeria, and has reached 14.5 million farmers and impacted 50 million people. These are programs that have real impact on the ground.

Having lived and worked in 15 African countries, including 10 years in francophone countries, I have experienced firsthand the complexities of what our continent needs.

Too often our decisions are driven more by our own political interests or policy preferences, when it should be driven by the needs of those we are seeking to empower. This is particularly important when speaking about a continent so ecologically, socially, and economically diverse as Africa. There is no one solution or quick fix.

First and foremost, the question is: what kind of Africa do we want?

 I want an Africa with inclusive and sustainable growth, and one that is globally competitive. As President, I will focus on five strategic priorities: integrated infrastructure, private sector growth, increased employment opportunities, reviving the rural economy and regional integration.

The focus, across the board, will also be on scaling programs that have delivered results —tangible outcomes, not merely outputs.

Across all the priority areas, we need to strengthen integrity, transparency and accountability. We will demand of ourselves the same thing as we demand of our countries. We must manage our resources well, and we must always examine our actions from the perspective of the public. We must put people first, because ultimately we are investing in a better future for them.

Let me speak briefly to the priority areas.

We need to minimize the global widening of the infrastructure gap. There’s no lack of ideas about what Africa needs to do on infrastructure – the key is how you turn them into bankable projects. We need smart projects.

 In infrastructure, the players are many but they are not coordinated. The Bank can play that role effectively: funneling money to the right priority areas. The Bank should engage all domestic, regional and international partners – including established partners, like the World Bank, and newly emerging players, like BRICS’ new development bank. I will also lead the bank to focus on rapidly building infrastructure for small and fragile states.

We need to mobilize greater resources to finance infrastructure in Africa. To manage that effectively will require $93 billion per year and will require mobilizing domestic resources, private sector funds, and multilateral financing. Leveraging capital markets is crucial to improving our approach to infrastructure.

We need to prioritize the kind of infrastructure projects that will help us deliver “power-for-all” – universal access to electricity. Access to power is absolutely vital to Africa’s development. Africa has 50% of the world’s renewable energy, but it remains largely untapped. Developing energy infrastructure will drive rapid economic and social development. We should target investment toward renewable energy – solar, hydropower, geothermal, wind. And we should have a two track approach - supporting a combination of large, transformative regional power projects and smaller projects that can be implemented more quickly to create immediate impact in local communities.

Africa’s private sector accounts for 70 percent of investment, 70 percent of output and 90 percent of employment. The private sector can drive industrialization in Africa and unlock wealth at all levels of society. The Bank needs to develop its private sector operations.

Back in 2005, the Bank was lending $250 million. By 2013, it was lending $2.1 billion. Clearly, a lot is being done in private sector, but it is still not meeting the needs. For inclusive growth, we have to direct financing to empower entrepreneurship for those that impact the majority of the population – SMEs in the private sector. As President, I will work to build the financial intermediaries needed to deliver affordable financing to African companies. We will establish business development advisory services targeted at positioning SMEs to secure venture capital and private equity funds.

The equity capital market accounts for $1.5 trillion per year, but these funds are heavily concentrated in just three countries: South Africa, Nigeria, and Namibia.  We need to deepen the market to mobilize financing – we need to get these funds to smaller and fragile countries. It can’t all go to the same three places, that’s not real progress.

We also need to mobilize domestic resources. Non-regional donors must have a leveraging effect. There are a lot of domestic resources in Africa: such as pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and diaspora funds – and we have to unlock them. We have $158 billion in sovereign wealth funds alone. We need to put it to good use.

And we need to prioritize blended finance - combining public and private financing - to reduce risk exposure to the private sector.

We need to work with governments to lower the cost of doing business across Africa. Currently 18 out of the 25 least competitive countries are in Africa. This needs to change. Enabling the private sector will increase the opportunities in the job market. Changes need to be made to address the fact that the economic growth we have today is jobless growth. And we need to pay special attention to unemployment among two populations: youth and women.

30 million youths enter the market annually, and we need to create jobs for them. This is not just an economic priority. It is a security investment. Without jobs, we face economic, social, and political risks. As many of you know, the majority of youth who turn to violence have no job—and seemingly no options. 50% of young fighters in Sierra Leone and Liberia participated in the violence because they didn’t have jobs.

And we’re facing a migration crisis – largely due to an absence of jobs for our young people. I want to build an Africa that keeps and attracts talented, hardworking people. Our people should not be boarding ships, putting themselves at incredible risk, in search of hope and a chance to make something of their lives. That’s why I believe we must build a more prosperous continent that will give hope and opportunities to tens of millions of our youth. We want an Africa where they want to stay, not an Africa they want to move away from.

You can’t develop without women. Investing in women is not just the right thing to do, but also the smart thing to do. Women are the primary source for growth in local economies. Yet today, 64 million more women than men are unemployed in Africa. And if we don’t address women’s unemployment, we’re not going to make a dent in the broader unemployment crisis. Women need access to education, technology, jobs, and financing.

As president, I will lead the African Development Bank to implement an Annual Gender Score Card and an African Women Empowerment Index, because we shouldn’t just talk about women empowerment – we should actually do it and measure that we’re doing it well.

And with 50% of Africa’s farmers being women, we must commit to reviving the rural economies for their benefit as much as anyone else’s.

We need to change the way we see agriculture – it’s not merely about development, it’s an economic driver. If you use agriculture as an engine to revive rural economies you create new prosperity zones for the people and that will have an impact on reducing insecurity problems.

Africa has 65% of all the arable land left to feed the 9 billion people in the world by 2050. Transforming the agriculture sector will have the largest impact on inclusive growth on the continent, given that 70-80% of the labor force is engaged in the sector but are locked into poverty.

We must provide innovative financing instruments and direct private equity funds toward agribusiness investment. By reviving rural economies and empowering them with tools to connect their goods to viable markets, we will unlock incredible opportunities for growth, ensure equitable growth and realize the promise of a shared prosperity—as we lift millions out of poverty.

We need to diversify the economies in African countries that are rich in natural resources, to shield them from over-exposure to volatilities in global markets (as we saw recently with falling oil prices). Focusing on unlocking agriculture’s potential will go a long way toward diversification and building "soil wealth" rather than relying on oil and mineral wealth.

Much of Africa’s growth is due to commodities and high extractive rates. Focusing on exporting our abundance of raw commodities makes African economies vulnerable to volatilities in commodities prices. Unless this is changed, Africa is like a giant with feet of clay. We need to lead these countries toward diversification. And agriculture is key.

We also need to improve management of those natural resources – transparency and accountability must be enforced. Africa is not poor, but its people are poor because money disappears. That needs to change. Africa is rich in natural resources, with $85 trillion in discovered resources, but it loses $60 billion per year in illicit outflows. We need to work on all levels to enforce transparency and accountability. This money should be going to development – to advancing healthcare and education in our communities. Imagine what that $60 billion could do for our people each year. Africa’s resources should not belong to the few, but should be for the benefit of all.

We need to reduce inequalities in economic prosperity among countries in the region. We should integrate our region. Economies that focus on regional markets are less vulnerable to price fluctuations.
 The world’s most prosperous trading blocs are heavy on interregional trade.

Landlocked countries need to be connected to coastal ports through investment in transnational infrastructure, especially highways, trans-boundary water basins, and railway, maritime, and air transport systems. We must deliver integrated infrastructure and eliminate barriers – this will expand the size of the regional markets and reduce the cost of movement of goods, services and people, creating a more open Africa.

I know the roadmap toward that vision for Africa is challenging, but we are already seeing tremendous progress, and we now have the confidence to achieve even greater results.

We need to build a Bank with a pulse for Africa’s people. A Bank that is more impact-oriented, efficient and responsive to the needs of its clients in a rapidly changing, multilateral economic landscape. A Bank that will be the partner of choice for all things African development.

We must build an Africa that will unlock greater opportunities with hope and prosperity for all. An Africa that all Africans can be happy to call their home. Together, we can achieve this.

THE END.
Source : adesinaforafdb.com 
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This glorious summer of 2015 in Nigeria, incoming President Muhammadu Buhari will...

Having won the March 28th-29th Presidential elections, Retired General Muhammadu Buhari is expected to be sworn in on the 29th of May. 
Below is a campaign document detailing his pledge for the first 100 days of government.  

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My 100 Days Covenant With Nigerians - Buhari  

(Source, Critiques)

Corruption and Governance
I pledge to:

• Publicly declaration of my assets and liabilities
• Encourage all my appointees to publicly declare their assets and liabilities as a pre-condition for appointment. All political appointees will only earn the salaries and allowances determined by the Revenue Mobilization and Fiscal Allocation Commission (RMFAC).
• Personal leadership in the war against corruption
• Inaugurate the National Council on Procurement as stipulated in the Procurement Act. The Federal Executive Council, which has been turned to a weekly session of contract bazaar, will concentrate on its principal function of policy making.
• Review and implement audit recommendations by Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative including those on remittances and remediation.
• Work with the National Assembly towards the immediate enactment of a Whistle Blower Act
• Work with the National Assembly to strengthen ICPC and EFCC by guaranteeing institutional autonomy including financial and prosecutorial independence and security of tenure of officials. Make the Financial Intelligence Unit of the EFCC autonomous and operational.
• Encourage proactive disclosure of information by government institutions in the spirit of the Freedom of Information Act.
• Ensure all MDAs and parastatals regularly comply with their accountability responsibilities to Nigerians through the National Assembly.
• All political officer holdersearn only the salaries and emoluments determined and approved by the Revenue Mobilization and Fiscal Commission RMFAC.
• Work with the leadership of the National Assembly and the Judiciary to cut down the cost of governance.
• I will present a National Anti corruption Strategy.

Insurgency and Insecurity
I have had the rare privilege of serving my country in the military in various capacities and rose to become a Major General and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. I defended the territorial integrity of our nation.
I pledge to:

• As Commander-in-Chief, lead from the front and not behind in the comfort and security of Aso Rock to boost the morale of fighting forces and the generality of all Nigerians.
• Give especial attention to the welfare of our armed forces and their families; lost heroes and their families and the victims of insurgency.
• Boost the morale of the men and women in the field by public recognition of their efforts through memorabilia, stamps, statues, regular rotation, regular payment of allowances, regular communication between the men and officers of security agencies, provision of best health care and housing for families of deceased comrades.
• I will present a marshal plan to the nation that will combat insurgency, ethnic and religious violence, kidnapping and rural banditry.
• Provideof the best and appropriate military and other materials the country needs to combat insurgency, ethnic and religious violence, kidnapping and rural banditry.
• Establish personal relationship with governors of the affected states by insurgency, with leaders of the countries in the region and with leaders around the world to coordinate efforts to combat insurgency, oil theft, piracy and criminality.
• Restore confidence in the bilateral and multilateral partnerships in addressing insurgency including procurements.
• Activate regular meetings of the National Police Council to ensure the discharge of its true constitutional role in a transparent and accountable way.
• As a father, I feel the pain of the victims of insurgency, kidnapping and violence whether they are the widows and orphans of military, paramilitary, civilians and parents or the Chibok girls. My government shall act decisively on any actionable intelligence to #BringBackOurGirls.

Niger Delta
I pledge to:

• Restore the integrity of the Niger Delta by implementing relevant sections of the Ledum Technical Committee on human capital development, resource management and distribution, governance and rule of law, reclamation and environmental and sustainable development.
• Commit myself and my administration to the phased implementation of the United Nations Environment Program’s(UNEP) recommendations on Ogoniland.
• Unveil a marshal plan for the regenerative development of the Niger Delta.

Diversity
Diversity refers to the inherent complexities of the variations in the social fabric of a people. Elements of poorly managed diversities include absence of cohesion, low capacity or political will to address resulting tensions, weak institutions of the state, in-equalities in every facet, impunity, breakdown of mutual trust, rising incidences of violence and total breakdown of law and order. To quickly reverse this observable trend in our society:

L incoming President Buhari / R outgoing Goodluck Ebele Jonathan

 I pledge to:

• Continually acknowledge and consciously (?) equality and equity in all government businesses and activities.
• Implement the National Gender Policy including 35% of appointive positions for women.
• Work with National Assembly to pass a National Disability Bill, which I shall immediately assent, into Law.
• Immediately charge relevant MDAs to implement new building codes to ensure that people with disability have easier access.
• I will lead the campaign for restoration of mutual trust and cohesion for nation building, while also working with the National Assembly to make appropriation to strengthen institutions and platforms promoting dialogue and inclusion.
• I will promote amendment to the provisions of section 14:3 of the Constitution to give effect to the expansion of the scope of representation to include women and persons with disabilities.
• Work with National Assembly to pass the National Disability Act and the Equal Opportunities Bill.

Health
I pledge to:

• Implement the National Health Act 2014,which guarantees financial sustainability to the health sector and minimum basic health care for all and ban medical tourism by government officials.
• Launch special programme to improve availability of water and sanitation.
• Review occupational health laws and immediately commence enforcement of the provisions to reduce hazards in the work place.
• Unveil a health sector review policy to ensure the efficient and effective management of our health systems.
• Mobilize the health workforce needed for the all-round implementation of our primary health programmes for rural communities.

Agriculture
I pledge to:

• Make pronouncement to make agriculture a major focus of the government and lay the institutional foundation to attract large-scale investments and capital into the agricultural infrastructural sector
• Launch a massive agricultural infrastructural investments plan that will focus on production, transportation infrastructure and marketing logistics across Nigeria
• Launched a massive, well-coordinated and innovatively funded Youth in Commercial Agribusiness Programme.
• Establish agricultural produce pricing and marketing mechanism and institutions
• Work with State and Local Governments to launch Agricultural Support Programmes that will drive state level massive agricultural land development and mechanization agenda
• Revamp, revitalize and continuous improvement on the national agricultural extension and rural support service system
• Initiated a holistic project aimed at promoting and securing access of standardized agricultural products to both local and international markets
• Lay the groundwork for a standardized market uptake and aggregation outlets for specific agricultural produce
• Initiated a comprehensive revamp of key development banks (Bank of Agriculture, Bank of Industry and Nigeria Import & Export Bank) operations to fund inclusive agricultural value chain operations
• Lay the groundwork for an ambitious, massive, seamless, accessible single-digit agricultural value-chain finance programme
• Initiated the process to appropriately liberalise and expand agricultural and rural insurance system with premium subventions support to farmers
• Revamp the agricultural cooperative system to drive rural agriculture and improves stakes for smallholder farmers
• Launch appropriate tariff rectification instrument to support import-export anomalies

Management of the Economy for prosperity
Every Nigerian deserves to benefit from the running of our collective resources. We promise not to leave any Nigerian behind in our determination to create, expand and ensure equitable and effective allocation of economic opportunities. No matter the amount of funds we generate, unless there is an efficient and effective utilization, it will only create few billionaires.  Unless we fight corruption, the economy will only benefit the greedy in our society.
I pledge to:

• Work with the legislature to strengthen constitutional provisions to make the meetings of the National Economic Council more periodic and predictable and its decisions more binding.
• Present annual report on the state of the economy to the National Assembly and the Nigerian People.
• The Preparation of Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and annual Budget will be guided by job creation projections.
• Negotiate rule-based oil revenue management process, and adopt a rule based excess crude account management process, which will entail a fixed percentage (e.g. 10% or 20%) of oil revenue each year, and also set clear rules about where the proceeds will be domiciled, when the savings can be used, by whom, and what the savings can be used for.
• Work with the National Assembly to adopt a rule based, realistic and predictable oil benchmark as a basis for a more transparent management of federation account revenue and excess crude account.
• Launch a Small Business Loan Guarantee Scheme in partnership with Commercial Lenders to improve access to finance for SMEs.
• Automate the business registration process to ensure sole proprietorships can be opened within 24 hours and incorporated business within 5 days.
• Reduce the cost of company registration to a maximum of N10, 000 for sole proprietorships to encourage formalization.
• Review and regulate import duty waivers to promote transparency and accountability;
• Forge partnerships with state and local governments and private sectors to promote innovation, entrepreneurship and cottage industries;
• Work with the National Assembly to review and finalize work on the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB);
• Boost community and local participation in downstream through expansion and promotion of local content development;
• Commence organizational reforms to curb corruption in NNPC and its subsidiaries

Industrial Relations
I pledge to:

• Give political force to collective bargaining in all sectors of the economy, revive Tripartite Committee of Government, employers and workers organisations, whose task would be to constantly review matters of labour relations and the practice of industrial relations.
• Undertake to institute an annual statutory tripartite body contribute towards formulation and implementation of broad macro-economic policies.
• Reposition Ministry of Employment, Labour and Productivity and all relevant agencies mandated to manage labour dispute and grievance handling process to ensure pre-emptive strategies to halt the current frequent incessant strikes phenomenon.

Power
The power sector has become a monstrous demonstration of corruption. Despite investment of more than X there is nothing to show but few fat cats.
I pledge to:

• War against corruption in the power sector
• Tackle the issue of gas availability for the proposed power plants
• Emphasis alternative sources of power such as small, medium and large hydro plants (Mambilla has capacity for 4,700 megawatts), wind, coal and solar. Efforts will be geared towards smaller and potable power supply.
• Start an accelerated training of human resources for the power sector.
• Work with PenCom to consider giving soft loans to power sector operators.

Youth and ICT Development
The youth are the salt of the nation. More than 60% of our population is categorized as being of youth age. The future of the nation depends on the brains of the youth and not on what is buried under the ground.
I pledge to:

• Declare support for the appointment of young people with requisite qualification into key political offices to begin the incubation and mentoring for a successor political generation.
• Unveil a policy that all federal contractors must employ at least 50% young people.
• Work with the private sector to establish innovation fund for young people.
• Encourage that girls’and boys’ education is prioritized in states where this is established to be a big problem.
• Review and make pronouncements, with attendant political will and commitment, on the full implementation of the national youth policy.
• Establish innovation centers in conjunction with proposed National Science Foundation and the private sector.
• Include vocational skills in the curriculum of Almajiri schools so that they become self-employed.
• Unveil a policy that will begin to multiply the efforts and effects of technology incubation centers to at least establish two of such centers in each of the geopolitical zone.
• Establish a free-tuition and scholarship scheme for pupils who have shown exceptional aptitude in science subjects at O/Levels to study ICT-related courses.
• Immediately establish linkages with friendly names to champion exchange programmes for the acquisition of IT related skills.
• Extend the local content policies to cover software and hardware developments in the youth-driven markets. Put in place a quality assurance mechanism to ensure that standards are met and adhered to and make it a policy for companies to procure a % of their ICT needs from the local market.
• Hold a summit of all ICT service providers, OEMs, etc both local and foreign that are doing business in Nigeria to device concrete skills transfer and capacity building models in a sustainable manner.

----------------------------------
God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

The World Can Afford to Shrink The Workweek

Interestingly, workers are not ready for the freedom that a shrinking workweek may entail.  For many the fear is "if I'm not commuting to and from work daily or earning a better job title, then who am I?"- an existential crisis.  The same type of fear that makes even wealthy people hate losing their job - rather than embrace the opportunities for a newer freer life, they're just upset because they want, more than anything zen you can think up, to keep in the game, so to speak. The job gives them meaning and order.

It is also true that many, particularly the poorest, need the jobs because they absolutely need the income.  Employment creates a pathway, particularly for the poorest people, to scramble out of poverty into the realm of possibility.

Employment creates a pathway for the poorest NATIONS also, and this is why it must remain a pillar of economic policy in Nigeria and several other developing nations - massive employment gives the population something to do that is not destructive, it may sometimes give the people a skills ramp too so they can move to higher-value production, and - very importantly - it earns income in a granular way that goes direct to the people and fosters democracy rather than through a central source that then fosters inequality and crime and war in the extreme scenario.  

Anyway, here are two comments on the need to shrink the workweek instead of moaning endlessly about unemployment:

Vivek Wadhwa, in We're Heading into a jobless future, no matter what the government does (The Washington Post):
"...Summers is right. Within two decades, we will have almost unlimited energy, food, and clean water; advances in medicine will allow us to live longer and healthier lives; robots will drive our cars, manufacture our goods, and do our chores. There won’t be much work for human beings. Self-driving cars will be commercially available by the end of this decade and will eventually displace human drivers—just as automobiles displaced the horse and buggy...
Summers is wrong, however, in his belief that governments can do as they did in the industrial age: create “enough work for all who need work for income, purchasing power and dignity.” They can barely keep up with the advances that are happening in technology, let alone develop economic policies for employment.  
The only solution that I see is a shrinking work week. We may perhaps be working for 10 to 20 hours a week instead of the 40 for which we do today. And with the prices of necessities and of what we today consider luxury goods dropping exponentially, we may not need the entire population to be working. There is surely a possibility for social unrest because of this; but we could also create the utopian future we have long dreamed of, with a large part of humanity focused on creativity and enlightenment."

Larry Page, in this famous, and very highly recommended, chat that also features Google co-founder Sergey Brin and venture-capitalist Vinod Khosla.  
"VinodKhosla The vast majority of employment shifted from farming to only needing about 2-percent of the U.S. workforce. That happened between 1900 and the year 2000. I see the beginnings of that happening again with the rapid acceleration the next 10, 15, 20 years.
LarryPage I totally believe we should be living in a time of abundance, like Peter Diamandis' book. If you really think about the things that you need to make yourself happy - housing, security, opportunities for your kids - anthropologists have been identifying these things. It's not that hard for us to provide those things. The amount of resources we need to do that, the amount of work that actually needs to go into that is pretty small. I'm guessing less than 1-percent at the moment. So the idea that everyone needs to work frantically to meet people's needs is just not true. I do think there's a problem that we don't recognize that. I think there's also a social problem that a lot of people aren't happy if they don't have anything to do. So we need to give people things to do. We need to feel like you're needed, wanted and have something productive to do. But I think the mix with that and the industries we actually need and so on are-- there's not a good correspondence. That's why we're busy destroying the environment and other things, maybe we don't need to be doing. So I'm pretty worried. Until we figure that out, we're not going to have a good outcome. One thing, I was talking to Richard Branson about this. They don't have enough jobs in the UK. He's been trying to get people to hire two part-time people instead of one full-time. So at least, the young people can have a half-time job rather than no job. And it's a slightly greater cost for employers. I was thinking, the extension of that is you have global unemployment or widespread unemployment. You just reduce work time. Everyone I've asked-- I've asked a lot of people about this. Maybe not you guys. But most people, if I ask them, 'Would you like an extra week of vacation?' They raise their hands, 100-percent of the people. 'Two weeks vacation, or a four-day work week?' Everyone will raise their hand. Most people like working, but they'd also like to have more time with their family or to pursue their own interests. So that would be one way to deal with the problem, is if you had a coordinated way to just reduce the workweek. And then, if you add slightly less employment, you can adjust and people will still have jobs.
SergeyBrin I will quibble a little bit. I don't think that in the near term, the need for labor is going away. It gets shifted from one place to another, but people always want more stuff or more entertainment or more creativity or more something."
Watch and/or read the complete fireside chat and transcript here.

You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one...

Central Bank of Nigeria gets new governor; what's on his plate?

Economist Ayo Teriba has written about two important challenges facing the new CBN head.

1. The need to gather and use economic data 

"...latest detailed spending and employment data available [as at June 2014] are for 2011...It is hoped that the CBN will broaden its partnership with the National Bureau of Statistics to ensure that these yawning data gaps are filled so that MPC can be adequately informed of these key aspects of the economy before vital policy decisions are taken."

2. The need to use expert economists

"No economist on the CBN board, few part-time economists on the Monetary Policy Committee...the technical expertise required for the Board of the CBN and the MPC to confront contemporary global economic and financial complexities and translate them to growth, employment, price, exchange rate and financial stability outcomes for Nigeria cannot be currently assumed to exist within the CBN. Both the Board of the CBN and the MPC are now populated by lawyers, accountants, bankers and/or stockbrokers."  

Godwin Emefiele, the new CBN Governor, resumed office June 2nd 2014 for a five-year term.  He was previously Group Managing Director of Zenith Bank PLC.  He has articulated his desire to create "a central bank that is professional, a central bank that is apolitical, and people-focused. A Central Bank that spends its energies on building a resilient financial system that can serve the growth and development needs of our beloved country, Nigeria."
His AGENDA SPEECH is worth reading
or watching:
 
It includes the kinds of things people want to hear now:
In "B. Central Banks and Economic Development", "We will work with the fiscal authorities in reducing other structural distortions to productive growth, as this will enhance access to credit, as well as stimulate growth and employment generation." 
In "C. Our Agenda for Development Finance", "the CBN will also design a programme for our fellow citizens who need as low as N50,000 without collaterals through registered and accredited local cooperatives. We shall encourage venture capital companies and business angels to fund SMEs" 

And it ends with a summary, because everybody loves a summary:
"CONCLUSION: The sole objective of this briefing is to place before you our plans to move our country forward. These ideas can be summarized as follows:
§ Pursue a gradual reduction in key interest rates, and include the unemployment rate in monetary policy decisions;
§ Maintain exchange rate stability and aggressively shore up foreign exchange reserves;
§ Strengthen risk-based supervision mechanism of Nigerian banks to ensure overall health and banking system stability;
§ Build sector-specific expertise in banking supervision to reflect loan concentration of the banking industry;
§ In view of inadequate trigger thresholds from a macro-prudential perspective, consider and announce measures to effectively address this anomaly;
§ Abolish fees associated with limits on deposits and reconsider ongoing practice in which all fees associated with limits on withdrawals accrue to banks alone;
§ Introduce a broad spectrum of financial instruments to boost specific enterprise areas in agriculture, manufacturing, health, and oil and gas;
§ Establish Secured Transaction and National Collateral Registry as well as establish a National Credit Scoring System that will improve access to information on borrowers and assist lenders to make good credit decisions;
§ Build resilient financial infrastructure that serves the needs of the lower end of the market, especially those without collateral;
§ Renew vigorous advocacy for the creation of commercial courts for quick adjudications on loan and related offences.
We must, by now, have been tired of hearing people talk about the “potentials” of Nigeria. Now is the time to live that dream. I truly believe that working together, we can achieve our goals and give Nigerians the chance to live longer, better and more fulfilled lives."

The assets and liabilities: 
Emefiele has inherited a solid central bank that is to some extent professional and in the last few years achieved
financial system stability (via AMCON and the intervention that saved depositor funds and ultimately saved the banks and jailed some fraudulent bank chiefs),
low inflation,
exchange rate stability,
an efficient payment system (rather more electronic and less cash-based than it was five years ago),
and a consistent (and transparent) monetary policy in the last couple of years.

On the other hand, profligate spending on bribes for votes in this election season (presidential elections expected in Q2 2015) will make it even tougher to control liquidity, inflation, or exchange rates.
There's also the question of how to better tap into global money flows, since today's hot money (MINT money) is so easily withdrawn from emerging market investments when economic conditions improve in Europe/the USA.
Above all, there's the fact that Emefiele's stated goal of deepening access to capital and finance for businesses and individuals is not new - it's the same thing past CBN governors, Finance Ministry, and in particular the Trade and Investment ministry, the Presidency, NGOs like EFInA, everybody wants.  Maybe it's just a hard goal to achieve.
You can find comments from the usual suspects: Razia Khan, Bismarck Rewane, BGL ... on these challenges.

The gossip section:
What does the new CBN chief mean when he references being "professional, apolitical" and he even used the words "expends its energies building ..." -
Well, some criticized his predecessor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi for poking his nose into politics by informing of billions in missing oil receipts.  Much has been made of the fact that he received an early suspension, got the sack effectively, from President Jonathan for that reason.  He was vocal in other ways: CBN autonomy debate, openly/unprofessionally expressing his abhorrence of (naira) billionaire bank owner-thieves, questioning the presidency's right to fire him without Senate approval even, and he dared to wear full traditional regalia to the office one day - crazy dude, that Sanusi.

In June 2012, dressed as Dan Majen Kano; 
two years later, Sanusi is the new Emir of Kano

As with many things in Nigeria, tribalism unnecessarily plays a role in the criticism of Sanusi.  Why did Sanusi support Islamic banking - is he trying to impose a Sharia kingdom?  Who authorized him to donate xyz money to flood victims in a Northern state?  Did he leak the letter about the missing oil receipts?  Is he working for the opposition party against Jonathan?
 Why fool around with fiscal policy when (for example Igbo) traders and potential industrialists in the real economy can't borrow money and bankers in the real economy can't keep their jobs because your policy has shrunk their bank?  Here are some scathingly critical articles amongst the hundreds you can find.  One, Two, Three, Four, ...
You know where I stand: I can only wish to be that crazy (if crazy also means gutsy, effective, and fun-loving) Ah, but this article is about the new Gov, Godwin Emefiele.
Wish him god-speed. 

ICT gives hope to African Entrepreneurs

By Firdausy Haruna, Mayowa Sanyaolu, and Funke Ajetunmobi

What is ICT?

Information and Communications Technology or (ICT), is often used as an extended synonym for information technology (IT), but is a more specific term that stresses the role of unified communications and the integration of telecommunications (telephone lines and wireless signals), computers as well as necessary enterprise software, middleware, storage, and audio-visual systems, which enable users to access, store, transmit, and manipulate information.

The term ICT is now also used to refer to the convergence of audio-visual and telephone networks with computer networks through a single cabling or link system. There are large economic incentives (huge cost savings due to elimination of the telephone network) to merge the audio-visual, building management and telephone network with the computer network system using a single unified system of cabling, signal distribution and management.

ICT and Internet Usage in Africa

The ICT sector has been the major economic driver in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade, witnessing an annual compounded growth rate of 40%.  Never before in the history of the continent has the population been as connected as it is today, yet this strong ICT growth trajectory is expected to continue, as penetration rates are still relatively low.

A key indicator in determining access and usage is the price of service, such as for voice and

data. Pricing of voice services in many African countries has become competitive and in line

with the rest of the world, while broadband costs continue to be a mixed bag.  However, when differences in GDP are taken into account as compared to global benchmarks, we in Africa still pay more on a GDP basis due to the lower GDP base.

Notably, the story of mobile penetration across the continent is far better than the Internet. Overall, 45% of African residents have a mobile subscription; this is more than four times the penetration of the Internet.

Internet penetration is dominated by the traditional economic successes in Africa. Countries like Egypt and South Africa have a very high proportion of internet users.  Kenya has also invested heavily in an usable infrastructure.  However the largest by far is that of Nigeria where at least a proportion of the massive oil revenues has been utilized to improve internet availability.

These countries alone have well over 50% of the internet users in Africa, while places like the Congo or Ethiopia have a depressingly small amount of internet users.

The potential for outsourcing

In the world economy at the moment, one of the few growth areas is the ICT sector. It is estimated that in the USA over the next 20 years there will be a shortfall of millions to fill vacancies in the IT and ITC sectors. It is thus essential that other countries take up the slack.

India and China have been very successful in attracting ICT contracts from Europe and America. It is now the time for Africa to seize these new business opportunities.

Africa is well positioned to gain a growing income from Business Process Outsourcing. Not only does it have the internet infrastructure in place but it also has the language abilities. There is a vast pool of Africans who claim English, French and Portuguese as their second language. There is also a sizeable community of Mandarin speakers in Africa. These language skills will prove to be decisive in the future for African BPO prospects.

Undersea cable projects like SEACOM (Kenya) and Main One (Nigeria) are building more fiber optic lines to connect Africa to the rest of the world.  At the same time there has been an upsurge in mobile phone and mobile device use in Africa. There are now in place several companies providing e-banking, e-commerce, e-learning, e-democracy and e-agriculture.

Another encouraging sign for the African ICT scene is the growing number of computer manufacturers in Africa. An increasing number of African countries make computers, software and other applications for mobiles. The image of a hopelessly poor and lagging continent will change as Africa begins to grab more of the global ICT business opportunities.

In terms of education, ambitious plans are underway to provide all school children with a laptop. This can be achieved by cloud technology that allows computers to be built cheaply that still perform complex and memory heavy tasks by using the ability to store data on the cloud. It is certain that future generations of Africans will be even more computer literate.

The rise of censorship

In Malawi, the EBill is the piece of legislation that enables the goverment to control access to the internet by individuals. In true Big Brother style, the state is appointing cyber- inspectors to monitor and inspect online activities.  Move over to Zambia and it’s a similar story, again using the pretext of blocking hate speech, although this is normally considered to be restricted to that speech directed at the rulers of the country. It is a very big job especially now with the introduction of cheaper smart mobile phones with internet capability. Africans love their phones and for many it’s their first experience of the internet in their daily lives.

Where there has been censorship, there has been a huge increase in the amount of security-enabled programs being used in these countries to bypass and protect the monitoring. However it’s also entertainment that is encouraging the use of proxies and VPNs to be used. For example a UK based VPN or proxy server can allow the user to watch British TV from a phone, laptop or mobile device. The cost is fairly low for these services although still expensive for most Africans.

The Internet Gives Hope to African Entrepreneurs

It is not easy starting up a business in Africa, but hopefully the internet will start to make that easier. One of the biggest problems in Africa is the lack of infrastructure both physical and intellectual.  

In brief, some of the key benefits of ICT in Africa over the years include:

·        New job opportunities

·        Improved communication systems

·        Increased market connectivity, particularly with mobile technologies

Some of the major challenges in ICT’s development in Africa are:

·        Inadequate electric power

·        Unevenly distributed internet access, including last-mile issues

·        Shortage of skilled, qualified ICT personnel

-         Weak or backward university curriculum

·        Funding/sponsorship gaps requiring urgent attention

Finally, some key actions that would develop ICT in Africa include:

·        Reducing the cost of access for mobile and broadband

-         Improving the regulatory and competitive environments for operators

-         Better coordination in developing the infrastructure

-         Resolve spectrum constraints to free up access for additional players

-         Government commitment to increasing ICT access

-         Lower taxation of ICT equipment

·        Collaboration by key stakeholders, including government, private-sector and universities

·        Training and capacity-building

Based on the February 2012 ICT Competitiveness in Africa report by Javier Ewing, Nicolas Chevrollier, Maryanna Quigless, Thomas Verghese, and Matthijs Leenderste.

The three authors are students in Telecommunications Engineering at Bells University of Technology, Ogun State.  They prepared this paper under my supervision for the course CEN 302: Introduction to ICT.