Showing posts with label finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label finance. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Our daughter Ilhan...





...and hurrah for our son Rishi as he becomes the head of government in that other 'abroad' (UK)







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Saturday, April 18, 2020

Monday, December 02, 2019

macro-

This article is ostensibly about "Modern Monetary Theory"
It also inspires one to consider (re-consider) a range of macroeconomic keywords, themes, and questions...

Why can't elections be twice as frequent?  Ten times?  Why can't a plutarchy be good?  Why can't most people be entrepreneurs?  Why can't more services be guaranteed?   Taxation - who is still paying?  Interest rates - why are they going down? 

The relationships, dependencies, linkages,  between, say,  infrastructure and services, and liquidity and jobs, and public policy and the private sector,
are not very fixed,
while the shifting situations present a whole new picture of possibilities and problems; opportunities.


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Monday, May 11, 2015

Yet another tantalizing critique of Piketty's book

The English-language mondediplo.com site of Le Monde Diplomatique has Why Piketty isn't Marx. Well, of course I clicked and was rewarded with these gems of economics, scholarship, and criticism:
1.
We should not ignore the book’s merits. Every commentator must be impressed by the scale and quality of Piketty’s statistical work. But its principal virtue lies in the fact that it is a book. Most economists, driven by the need to publish, have unlearned the skill of writing books. Instead, they produce technical papers (not longer than the 15 pages allowed by academic journals) so standardised that they lose all meaning. Capital in the Twenty-First Century is the thousand-page culmination of 15 years of dedicated toil. The usefulness of social sciences is never so clear as when they contribute to the political debate with solidly established facts.
But all the methodological rigour in the world will not make up for the most basic deception, so obvious that it has passed unnoticed: the title. Piketty tells us he is going to discuss capital. He is aware that a well-known author has written a book about it before him. He seems to think “I can get away with this”. Unfortunately, it does matter: it’s fine to call a new book Critique of Pure Reason provided you are not writing about, say, herbal medicine.
Just what is capital? Piketty, not having really read Das Kapital, is only able to give a very superficial definition: the wealth of the wealthy. To Marx, capital was something else entirely, a mode of production, a complex social relationship which, crucially, adds employment relationships to the monetary relationships of simple market economies. These are based on private ownership of the means of production and on the legal myth of the “free worker”, who is deprived of any means of making a living independently and therefore forced to hire himself out to survive, and to submit to domination by an employer.
... That is what capital is, not just the Fortune 500. In the narrow sense of wealth, capital affects ordinary people through the obscene spectacle of wealth inequality. But as a mode of production and a social relationship, it affects them far more through the slavery it creates — an eight-hour working day takes up half their waking day. Redundant workers probably suffer less from seeing the rich parade their wealth than from the way their lives have been wrecked by the iron law of financial valuation. The same goes for those in work, who suffer under the tyrannical demands of productivity and profitability, constant threats of mass layoffs, delocalisation, restructuring — the energy-sapping precariousness and brutal nature of employment. None of this is even mentioned in the book.
The form and intensity of this slavery are determined by the historical circumstances under which capitalism is manifested — for in practice, there are many different kinds of capitalism. And it is the inseparably linked, changing economic and political factors that continually steer capitalism in new directions. But Piketty is quite unable to see things in a light that would show up the specifically political factors in the history of capitalism.

2. 
Piketty may repeat over his thousand pages that inequality increases when r(rate of return on capital) is greater than g (growth rate), but he has explained nothing because he doesn’t describe the factors that determine rates of return and growth in each era. These depend on the organisation of structures in the particular era, the result of political struggles — of class struggles.
3.
He is ill-equipped to tell the story.  Nothing in his career has prepared him for it: he cannot go overnight from a social-democratic, organic economist to being the Marx of the 21st century.
[La République des Idées, RI, for instance,]... has consistently taken great care never to raise any indecorous issues... talked about inequality for many years, weeping over the sufferings of the workers, but has blamed rapid technological innovation and lack of training, and praised the virtues of academic research. What about free trade and the devastation it brings? Or the tyranny of shareholder value? Or the EU, now in the final stages of neoliberalism? Not a word. RI thinks all these are our destiny. It has a strategy of evasion — and sleight of hand. Those who claim to be serious and are keen to maintain their influence and their reputation in the media never mention such things.
...
 Finance has been globalised and nobody had taken any notice, but it is now clear that everything is not rosy. The economist Daniel Cohen, like Piketty, after decades of silence on this, has suddenly realised that the design of the EU’s monetary union was “faulty from the start”... Their belated rectifications will have very little effect. Long-term intellectual and political habits are hard to overcome. Capital is riddled with them; Piketty skips over the political and social history that
...
The logical consequence of the strategy of evasion is that taxation becomes the only remaining tool available. Giving up on trying to change structures means taking palliative measures. Taxation has never been anything more than a social-democratic palliative — if we can’t tackle the causes, let’s at least try to alleviate the effects. Piketty, torn between the immediate problem and his desire not to disrupt anything fundamental, would like taxation to have greater virtues than it does, even the ability to regulate international finance. It’s hard to see what kind of tax could substitute for the necessary major assault on the structures of liberalised finance. What tax could replace bank separation, closure of some markets, a ban on securitisation?

4.
Piketty provides a scientific consecration, not only of the public perception that monetary inequality exists, but also of the theme around which the discussion of capitalism will revolve — around which it already revolves: even The Economist has had years of articles on monetary inequality, which will be the weakest link in the diagnosis, the point where the most inoffensive critiques converge. Monetary inequality has a great virtue: it makes it possible to avoid talking about the other inequalities created by capitalism, which are not accidental, but fundamental and constituent — the political inequalities in the true sense of hierarchical subservience in employment; that in business, some give orders and others must follow them. No tax, not even a global tax, will ever be able to address this.
To ask questions about this inequality, which is ultimately about the way lucrative property (capital), controls our lives, and of the pressure to be employed, is to ask the key question that the real Marx asks about capital. Or anyway the key question about capitalism’s current configuration, which a global financial tax (that will never happen) could do nothing about. Only a resumption of the struggle for popular sovereignty, by a single nation, or several nations together, according to political circumstances, would be able to do anything — by changing, through the transformation of structures, the balance of power that allows capital to hold society to ransom.
Piketty’s critique of wealth inequality touches on none of this. 
Isn't it funny how I've studied all these essays with pleasure and I still haven't read the book in question (Capital in the Twenty-First Century) yet.  I have, I should mention, studied Marx's Capital (usually known as Das Kapital) at least once.  I do not endorse every idea that I re-publish here, but I do endorse rigorous debate and critique.  To what extent does economics/business not know what the hell it's doing?  Do we even care?  (The usual answer is of course not.)  I think it is interesting too that this money blog (UpNaira / Money Talk) is becoming in some ways an anti-money blog, have you noticed?  

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References:
- Quotes 1-4 above taken from "Why Piketty isn't Marx", written by Frédéric Lordon in Le Monde Diplo May 12th 2015 (link)
The introduction/summary: Thomas Piketty’s thousand-page economics bestseller reduces capital to mere wealth — leaving out its political impact on social and economic relationships throughout history.

- Workers, a painting, by Olumide Oresegun

- Flower seller, and other paintings of labour(ers), by Diego Rivera

- What does Capital in the Twenty-First Century, the book, look like? 

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

What Africa needs now: Transnational infrastructure, Transparency in systems, Using and developing all her people, ...

Akinwumi Adesina is running for President of AfDB. He was a Most-Valuable Player on the Nigerian Federal Cabinet, so I say yes, hope he gets the job. 
https://www.google.com/search?q=akinwunmi+adesina
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Speech by Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, Nigerian Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development and candidate for President of the African Development Bank 
Delivered at the Business Council for Africa’s Annual Debate
21 April 2015

Africa is experiencing a never-before-seen economic and political transformation. Five of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies are located here. It has rightfully created tremendous excitement not only within our borders, but around the world.

 While there are many reasons to celebrate the improved economic performance, daunting challenges remain and troubling trends have emerged.

We are facing widening economic and social inequalities that have resulted from non-inclusive growth. Africa’s poverty rates are still the highest in the world. Despite gains that have been made, the reality is that 44% of Africans still live on less than $1.25 per day.

These are struggles I know. I grew up in poverty, the son of a farmer who worked for less than 10 cents per day. I was one of the lucky few to attain education and opportunity. I don’t want my story to be the exception, I want the cycle of poverty to be broken across Africa. Our economic success needs to be shared – with prosperity for all – creating a more equal, stable, and peaceful continent. Nothing is more important than putting an end to poverty.

We are also facing rapid urbanization that will determine the resilience of the growth process.

We have exceedingly high levels of unemployment – which leads to social, political, and economic fragility.

Fragility is on the rise. 53% of Africa’s nations are fragile states. Fragility, joblessness, and economic and political exclusion breed terrorism. We need to tackle the fundamentals of fragility.

We are on the receiving end of climate change. Although Africa has done little to contribute to the damage, we are suffering heavily from the effects of it. We are paying a disproportionate price for climate change.

While we should celebrate our achievements, we also need to recognize that these key challenges must be tackled head-on by the African Development Bank. We need to renew our commitment to addressing these together – with both regional and non-regional members. As we do so, the Bank will grow into its role as the premier finance institution on the continent.

That is why I am running for president of the African Development Bank.

To make progress, the next President must not only understand the merits of a policy or strategy, but how to translate it into action on the ground. This is something I have done over the course of my career.

I’ve implemented innovative finance schemes in several African countries – from Uganda to Tanzania, Kenya to Mozambique, Ghana to Nigeria. I’ve helped to leverage over $4 billion from commercial banks to finance agricultural SMEs. And I launched an electronic wallet program which helped to end corruption in the fertilizer sector in Nigeria, and has reached 14.5 million farmers and impacted 50 million people. These are programs that have real impact on the ground.

Having lived and worked in 15 African countries, including 10 years in francophone countries, I have experienced firsthand the complexities of what our continent needs.

Too often our decisions are driven more by our own political interests or policy preferences, when it should be driven by the needs of those we are seeking to empower. This is particularly important when speaking about a continent so ecologically, socially, and economically diverse as Africa. There is no one solution or quick fix.

First and foremost, the question is: what kind of Africa do we want?

 I want an Africa with inclusive and sustainable growth, and one that is globally competitive. As President, I will focus on five strategic priorities: integrated infrastructure, private sector growth, increased employment opportunities, reviving the rural economy and regional integration.

The focus, across the board, will also be on scaling programs that have delivered results —tangible outcomes, not merely outputs.

Across all the priority areas, we need to strengthen integrity, transparency and accountability. We will demand of ourselves the same thing as we demand of our countries. We must manage our resources well, and we must always examine our actions from the perspective of the public. We must put people first, because ultimately we are investing in a better future for them.

Let me speak briefly to the priority areas.

We need to minimize the global widening of the infrastructure gap. There’s no lack of ideas about what Africa needs to do on infrastructure – the key is how you turn them into bankable projects. We need smart projects.

 In infrastructure, the players are many but they are not coordinated. The Bank can play that role effectively: funneling money to the right priority areas. The Bank should engage all domestic, regional and international partners – including established partners, like the World Bank, and newly emerging players, like BRICS’ new development bank. I will also lead the bank to focus on rapidly building infrastructure for small and fragile states.

We need to mobilize greater resources to finance infrastructure in Africa. To manage that effectively will require $93 billion per year and will require mobilizing domestic resources, private sector funds, and multilateral financing. Leveraging capital markets is crucial to improving our approach to infrastructure.

We need to prioritize the kind of infrastructure projects that will help us deliver “power-for-all” – universal access to electricity. Access to power is absolutely vital to Africa’s development. Africa has 50% of the world’s renewable energy, but it remains largely untapped. Developing energy infrastructure will drive rapid economic and social development. We should target investment toward renewable energy – solar, hydropower, geothermal, wind. And we should have a two track approach - supporting a combination of large, transformative regional power projects and smaller projects that can be implemented more quickly to create immediate impact in local communities.

Africa’s private sector accounts for 70 percent of investment, 70 percent of output and 90 percent of employment. The private sector can drive industrialization in Africa and unlock wealth at all levels of society. The Bank needs to develop its private sector operations.

Back in 2005, the Bank was lending $250 million. By 2013, it was lending $2.1 billion. Clearly, a lot is being done in private sector, but it is still not meeting the needs. For inclusive growth, we have to direct financing to empower entrepreneurship for those that impact the majority of the population – SMEs in the private sector. As President, I will work to build the financial intermediaries needed to deliver affordable financing to African companies. We will establish business development advisory services targeted at positioning SMEs to secure venture capital and private equity funds.

The equity capital market accounts for $1.5 trillion per year, but these funds are heavily concentrated in just three countries: South Africa, Nigeria, and Namibia.  We need to deepen the market to mobilize financing – we need to get these funds to smaller and fragile countries. It can’t all go to the same three places, that’s not real progress.

We also need to mobilize domestic resources. Non-regional donors must have a leveraging effect. There are a lot of domestic resources in Africa: such as pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and diaspora funds – and we have to unlock them. We have $158 billion in sovereign wealth funds alone. We need to put it to good use.

And we need to prioritize blended finance - combining public and private financing - to reduce risk exposure to the private sector.

We need to work with governments to lower the cost of doing business across Africa. Currently 18 out of the 25 least competitive countries are in Africa. This needs to change. Enabling the private sector will increase the opportunities in the job market. Changes need to be made to address the fact that the economic growth we have today is jobless growth. And we need to pay special attention to unemployment among two populations: youth and women.

30 million youths enter the market annually, and we need to create jobs for them. This is not just an economic priority. It is a security investment. Without jobs, we face economic, social, and political risks. As many of you know, the majority of youth who turn to violence have no job—and seemingly no options. 50% of young fighters in Sierra Leone and Liberia participated in the violence because they didn’t have jobs.

And we’re facing a migration crisis – largely due to an absence of jobs for our young people. I want to build an Africa that keeps and attracts talented, hardworking people. Our people should not be boarding ships, putting themselves at incredible risk, in search of hope and a chance to make something of their lives. That’s why I believe we must build a more prosperous continent that will give hope and opportunities to tens of millions of our youth. We want an Africa where they want to stay, not an Africa they want to move away from.

You can’t develop without women. Investing in women is not just the right thing to do, but also the smart thing to do. Women are the primary source for growth in local economies. Yet today, 64 million more women than men are unemployed in Africa. And if we don’t address women’s unemployment, we’re not going to make a dent in the broader unemployment crisis. Women need access to education, technology, jobs, and financing.

As president, I will lead the African Development Bank to implement an Annual Gender Score Card and an African Women Empowerment Index, because we shouldn’t just talk about women empowerment – we should actually do it and measure that we’re doing it well.

And with 50% of Africa’s farmers being women, we must commit to reviving the rural economies for their benefit as much as anyone else’s.

We need to change the way we see agriculture – it’s not merely about development, it’s an economic driver. If you use agriculture as an engine to revive rural economies you create new prosperity zones for the people and that will have an impact on reducing insecurity problems.

Africa has 65% of all the arable land left to feed the 9 billion people in the world by 2050. Transforming the agriculture sector will have the largest impact on inclusive growth on the continent, given that 70-80% of the labor force is engaged in the sector but are locked into poverty.

We must provide innovative financing instruments and direct private equity funds toward agribusiness investment. By reviving rural economies and empowering them with tools to connect their goods to viable markets, we will unlock incredible opportunities for growth, ensure equitable growth and realize the promise of a shared prosperity—as we lift millions out of poverty.

We need to diversify the economies in African countries that are rich in natural resources, to shield them from over-exposure to volatilities in global markets (as we saw recently with falling oil prices). Focusing on unlocking agriculture’s potential will go a long way toward diversification and building "soil wealth" rather than relying on oil and mineral wealth.

Much of Africa’s growth is due to commodities and high extractive rates. Focusing on exporting our abundance of raw commodities makes African economies vulnerable to volatilities in commodities prices. Unless this is changed, Africa is like a giant with feet of clay. We need to lead these countries toward diversification. And agriculture is key.

We also need to improve management of those natural resources – transparency and accountability must be enforced. Africa is not poor, but its people are poor because money disappears. That needs to change. Africa is rich in natural resources, with $85 trillion in discovered resources, but it loses $60 billion per year in illicit outflows. We need to work on all levels to enforce transparency and accountability. This money should be going to development – to advancing healthcare and education in our communities. Imagine what that $60 billion could do for our people each year. Africa’s resources should not belong to the few, but should be for the benefit of all.

We need to reduce inequalities in economic prosperity among countries in the region. We should integrate our region. Economies that focus on regional markets are less vulnerable to price fluctuations.
 The world’s most prosperous trading blocs are heavy on interregional trade.

Landlocked countries need to be connected to coastal ports through investment in transnational infrastructure, especially highways, trans-boundary water basins, and railway, maritime, and air transport systems. We must deliver integrated infrastructure and eliminate barriers – this will expand the size of the regional markets and reduce the cost of movement of goods, services and people, creating a more open Africa.

I know the roadmap toward that vision for Africa is challenging, but we are already seeing tremendous progress, and we now have the confidence to achieve even greater results.

We need to build a Bank with a pulse for Africa’s people. A Bank that is more impact-oriented, efficient and responsive to the needs of its clients in a rapidly changing, multilateral economic landscape. A Bank that will be the partner of choice for all things African development.

We must build an Africa that will unlock greater opportunities with hope and prosperity for all. An Africa that all Africans can be happy to call their home. Together, we can achieve this.

THE END.
Source : adesinaforafdb.com 
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Financial Markets, an excellent, excellent introduction

Trust me, you will want to spend a few hours a week taking this online course that is currently available at the unbeatable price of ... an internet connection.  Financial Markets begins NOW, this week, and runs for eight weeks.  It may get addictive, like my previous Coursera courses
https://www.coursera.org/course/financialmarkets
Coursera + Yale university.  Financial Markets.
Prof. Schiller (Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013) who will be teaching the course, says in the introduction "finance is a very important technology.  It has a mathematical basis.  It has a intellectual underpinning that makes it a infrastructure for our, our whole economy.  And I want this course to help people  understand this technology so that they are not buffeted by it, so they can react to the technology and its opportunities constructively in whatever walk of life they choose."

There will be a guest every week, and in week one it's Hank Greenberg (of pre-bailout AIG).  

Get started with Financial Markets

Thursday, February 06, 2014

Corruption: A bigger picture


...Corruption in the form of bribery and theft by government officials, the main target of the UN Convention, costs developing countries between $20bn and $40bn each year. That's a lot of money. But it's an extremely small proportion - only about 3 percent - of the total illicit flows that leak out of public coffers.

Tax avoidance, on the other hand, accounts for more than $900bn each year, money that multinational corporations steal from developing countries through practices such as trade mispricing...This is a massive - indeed, fundamental - cause of poverty in the developing world, yet it does not register in the mainstream definition of corruption...

...During the 1980s and 1990s, the policies that these institutions [the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation] foisted on the Global South, following the Washington Consensus, caused per capita income growth rates to collapse by almost 50 percent...Western corporations have benefitted tremendously from this process, gaining access to new markets, cheaper labour and raw materials, and fresh avenues for capital flight.

...Voting power in the IMF and World Bank is apportioned so that developing countries - the vast majority of the world's population - together hold less than 50 percent of the vote, while the US Treasury wields de facto veto power.

Read more: aljazeera.com Flipping the corruption myth by Jason Hickel

Here are some directions to follow without delay:
- Require corporate interests, including multinationals, to contribute more to the public good of their host countries/communities and less to the bad (income inequality, environmental degradation, ...)  More immediately, structure tax payments so that they lead to development not to further fattening a fat central government.

- Evaluate the most modern financial market, accounting, and trading practices.  Categorize those that are clearly criminal, merely experimental, and so on and understand their risks and benefits in various scenarios.  Understand how the world of work has changed, and guide a global adjustment to lowered factory/office employment rates for instance.  

- Not tokenism, but a drastic shift in the way people of the world are represented in international bodies. In population, the world is roughly 1/6 Chinese, 1/6 Indian, 1/6 African, 1/6 American, 1/6 European, 1/6 Pacific. 
Notes on the regions/sixths
African: African and Arab/Middle Eastern || American: North, Central, South American  ||  European: with Turkey, Iran, and every -stan  ||  Pacific: South East Asia, with Japan, Bangladesh, Korea, Australia,

Thursday, April 11, 2013

MINT-ing wealth

They say the BRIC countries are over the hill, in terms of returns on hot-money investments, and it's all about the MINT group now, where Nigeria is the N.  I'm loving it (with due caution of course.)

The private-equity wizards at the conference are excited about Africa’s prospects over the next decade.
By 2050 [NIGERIA] will have a population the size of America’s. If it can make all those people more productive, Nigeria will be a “big, big economy”. How might it achieve this? The conditions that set the stage for faster growth are well known: sober monetary and fiscal policy; protection of property rights; education; openness to trade and technology. The search for the perfect policy mix is not what matters; the trick is to “focus on it”. Source: Africa's Economic Prospects

BRIC: Brazil-Russia-India-China
MINT: Mexico-Indonesia-Nigeria-Turkey
You may also read Investors Turn From BRIC to MINT

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Share some love - Opportunities in Nigeria

All ages and stages, so keep reading. 

1. If you're a finance/asset management professional, the Sovereign Wealth Fund staffing process is underway, for Finance Manager and the CFO, chiefs of Legal and Risk Management.  See Details.
Madam, by Tosin Otitoju
2. If you're a software developer/team or otherwise have ICT solutions for the finance or petroleum industries, Techlaunchpad may be the VC/angel you've been dreaming of.  How to apply:  Techlaunchpad.com.ng

3. If you graduated after 2010 with a First Class Honours degree in Engineering, Medicine, Economics, or some selected Sciences, AND have done NYSC, you may apply for a government scholarship for a PhD.  It's called PRESSID, and here are last year's winners, and here is the website of the NUC which is in charge of the scholarships. You know what to do. 

4. If you are an exceptional secondary school student or recent graduate with excellent SSCE, please apply to attend one of the United World Colleges on scholarship.  Please.  Follow the process for Nigerians

Adire-batik textiles
More scholarships here: scholarship-nigeria.com/
More job openings here: jobberman.com or jobs.vanguardngr.com

Monday, February 13, 2012

Interesting questions

A decent pay level has been set for public officials by RMAFC.  When you add about 1000% in allowances (a thousand percent), this pay may even seem more-than-just-decent. 

Is it possible for an elected or appointed or staff official to increase personal take-home pay beyond legal level (say, by stealing or dealing?)  In particular, it is often repeated that constituency allowances, security votes, and lax accounting allow public money to unfairly enter private pockets.  Can you confirm this?

What steps have you taken to keep the level of take home pay fair and thus free up funds for the enjoyment of Nigerian society as a whole? 

Here is one place where one can seek answers: a relevant Senate Committee (Establishment).  Here are contacts for all the Committees of the Nigerian Senate.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Hug a capitalist today

From The Economist

...Scorn for moneymen has a long pedigree. Jesus expelled the moneychangers from the Temple. Timothy tells us that “the love of money is the root of all evil.” Muhammad banned usury. The Jews referred to interest as neshek—a bite. The Catholic church banned it in 1311. Dante consigned moneylenders to the seventh circle of hell—the one also populated by the inhabitants of Sodom and “other practisers of unnatural vice”.

...This prejudice has proven dangerous. Without money to grease them, the wheels of commerce turn slowly or not at all. Civilisations that have eased the ban on moneylending have grown rich. Those that have retained it have stagnated.

...Prejudice against financiers can cause non-economic damage, too. Throughout history, moneylenders have been persecuted. Ethnic minorities—most obviously the Jews in Europe and America but also the Chinese in Asia—have clustered in the financial sector first because they were barred from more “respectable” pursuits and later because success begets success. At times, anti-banking prejudice has acquired a strong tinge of ethnic hatred.

...In medieval Europe Jews were persecuted not only because they were not Christians but also because killing them was a quick way to expunge debts...The crisis of 2008 showed that global finance requires tough medicine...but demonising bankers will not solve these problems—and may well, if unchecked, bring a lot of ancient ugliness back to life.  (...Read more)

How many people are anti-Igbo (among Nigerians), hate Ijebus (among Yorubas), feel mad at Nigerians (in Africa), abhor Jews, or maybe believe that Wall Street "casinos" are evil?  Read The dangers of demonology to appreciate the long history of banker-hate and its dangers.

Previously on UpNaira

 

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